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Gartner identifies cloud computing as tipping technology

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2012

Gartner has identified cloud computing as one of the fastest-moving technologies in its newly released 2012 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies.

According to Gartner, cloud computing has "moved noticeably along the Hype Cycle since 2011." Other fast-moving technologies include media tablets, 3D printing, activity streams, Internet TV, near field communication (NFC) payment (see figure 1 below).

Gartner's 2012 Hype Cycle Special Report assessed the maturity, business benefit and future direction of more than 1,900 technologies, grouped into 92 areas. New Hype Cycles this year include big data, the Internet of Things, in-memory computing and strategic business capabilities.

On the Gartner 2012 Hype Cycle below, Hybrid Cloud Computing has just entered the Peak of Inflated Expectations; Private Cloud Computing has just left the Peak of Inflated Expectations; whereas Cloud Computing has just entered the Trough of Disillusionment. Hosted Virtual Desktops has just left the Trough of Disillusionment, is starting to climb up the Slope of Enlightenment, and is expected to reach the Plateau of Productivity in two to five years.

Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2012 (annotated)

(Source: Gartner, August 2012)

"Almost becoming reality"

Gartner marked 2012 as a year of "tipping point." "We are at an interesting moment, a time when many of the scenarios we've been talking about for a long time are almost becoming reality," said Hung LeHong, Gartner's research vice president.

Despite presented as individual technologies, Gartner encourages enterprises to consider the Hype Cycle technologies in sets or groupings, as many new capabilities and trends involve multiple technologies working together. Often, one or two technologies that are not quite ready can limit the true potential of what is possible. Gartner refers to these technologies as "tipping point technologies" because, once they mature, the scenario can come together from a technology perspective.

"Big data and global scale computing at small prices" is one group of tipping point technologies. According to Gartner, it presents a scenario in which analytic insight and computing power are nearly infinite and cost-effectively scalable, enterprises can improve many improved capabilities, such as better understanding customers or better fraud reduction.

The enabling technologies for this scenario include quantum computing, the various forms of cloud computing, big data, complex-event processing, social analytics, in-memory database management systems, in-memory analytics, text analytics and predictive analytics.

Cloud computing, together with big data and in-memory database management systems, are the tipping point technologies that will make this scenario accessible to enterprises, governments and consumers.

Gartner considers BYOD (bring your own device) as another group of tipping point technologies. It includes hosted virtual desktops, HTML5, the various forms of cloud computing, silicon anode batteries and media tablets. Together are driven by the consumerization trend that is making it acceptable for enterprise employees to bring their own personal devices into the work environment.

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